Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region is mainly
dependent on oil, where it has the largest oil reserves in the world (an
estimated 486.8 billion barrels, equivalent to 35.7% of the total world
reserves of crude oil and 70% of the total world reserves of OPEC. In terms of
the order This is the region of the largest producers and exporters of oil,
they also play a leading role in the world in general and in the Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular. I enjoyed the six Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) boom huge economic until late 2008, doubling the size
of the economy countries Council by reaching US $ 1.1 trillion during the
period from 2002 to 2008, and is a reserve 52% of the total oil reserves of
OPEC production 49% of the total OPEC production of crude oil. also represents
its exports of oil and gas 73% approximately of the total export earnings . oil
and gas sector and accounts for about 63% of government revenues for those
countries and 41 per cent of the gross domestic product. The annual average oil
price for the OPEC basket increased by 35.4% fell to US $ 61.06 a barrel in
2009 compared to 2008, where the annual average of 94.45 dollars US, due mainly
to the global financial and economic crisis and the decline in global demand for
energy. As crude oil prices reached the highest price in the July 11, 2008 in
New York and that upon reaching US $ 147.27 a barrel, but prices fell after
that and the average annual price of crude oil for the OPEC basket in the first
four months of 2010 amounted to US $ 77.20 a barrel, compared with the same
period in 2009, where he was US dollars 44.79 and US $ 78.47 (UK Brent)
compared to the same period in 2009, where he was to $ 45.95 US dollars;
amounted to US dollars 80.18 (US crude oil) compared to the same period in
2009, where he was 44.71 US dollars a barrel. Moreover, the region is
continuing in the implementation of their economic reform programs currently
focused on attracting local and regional private and foreign investment in gas,
energy, telecommunications and real-estate sectors. However, the global oil
market and the global financial crisis and economic decline to a significant
slowdown in investment and development projects led the march, but his recent
global economic recovery will result in the restoration of economic activities
in the region.
Overview of
the macroeconomic
Growth
The size of the region's economy has doubled
during the period from 2002 - 2008, rising GDP rate of nominal compound of the
region the highest rate of 28.9% to reach 1076.8 billion US dollars in 2008,
compared with 14.2% to 835.6 billion US dollars in 2007 and attributed the
power economic performance to the increase in global oil demand until late
2008, and improved geo-political environment, and speed in taking corrective
actions, and increasing privatization activities, the growth of private assets
central banks and the strength of the corporate sector in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC). Nominal GDP in 2009 has decreased by - 19.3% to reach 868.5
billion US dollars due to the global financial and economic crisis and the
decline in the global oil market, it is expected to regain its height again by
17.6% to reach 1021.3 billion US dollars in 2010 and to rate 9.5% to 1118.2
billion US dollars in 2011 due to the expected recovery of the global economy.
Economy of the region has increased by 6.4% in 2008 compared to 2007 where the
rate of 5.1%, but fell sharply in 2009 to reach 0.5%. It is expected to regain
its Gross Domestic Product rising up to 4.2% in 2010 and to the ratio of 4.7 %
in 2011.
Inflation
The region proved superior in its ability to
keep the very low inflation rates over a long period of time, especially until
2004. This was due to fiscal and monetary wise and the abundance of goods and
services in the area of policies. Where the rate of inflation remained
balanced (0.2% to 2.1%) during 2001 to 2004. But the region has seen high
inflation rate reached 10.7% in 2008 compared to 2007 where it was 6.7%. The
high inflationary pressures relative attributed generally to imported inflation
and the depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies, as attributable
to each of the low interest rates, abundant liquidity, and increased spending,
housing shortages and an imbalance of supply and demand for goods and services,
especially food and beverages, building materials and other , falling inflation,
consumer price index rose 3.3% in 2009 due to the wise policies of the
governments in the region and that have been taken in the light of falling
global demand for energy and the occurrence of the global financial crisis is
expected that inflation up to 4.1% in 2010 and 2011.
Financial
situation
Due to high oil prices, increased oil
production levels, higher non-oil revenues, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
region has achieved a budget surplus amounted to 25.3 per cent of GDP in 2008
compared to 2007 where the rate of 17.7%. As Rising oil revenues previously
achieved by the region to huge capital expenditure. It is also due to the
global financial crisis and the decline in the global oil market has surplus
funds declined by 3.3% of GDP in 2009 it is expected that the region surpluses
of up to 4% of GDP in each of 2010 and 2011 due to the recovery in global
demand for oil and petroleum revenue associated with it. Where the region
became aware of the fiscal reforms needed to reduce dependence on the oil
sector in order to achieve fiscal discipline. Where to achieve the goal of
economic diversification in the region has become in the case of progress in
spite of the global financial and economic crisis, which had a slight impact on
the economies of the region compared to most other countries in the world.
Currency
Will continue to be the focus of monetary
policy for the region is to maintain the fixed exchange rate regime against the
US dollar, except for Kuwait, where the Kuwaiti dinar break ties in US dollars
on May 20, 2007 has maintained the central banks of the Gulf Cooperation
Council's policy of reducing foreign borrowing and in sustaining liabilities
low, and therefore this policy has contributed significantly to the long-term
stability of the currencies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) against the
US dollar, despite the depreciation of the US dollar against the euro and the
Japanese yen and the pound during the previous three years, but the United States
is the largest trading partner for the countries in the region, therefore
linked GCC currencies to the US dollar for its interest, and will help the high
oil market to a large extent the growth of reserves in the area of foreign
currency and ensure the absence of pressure on the currency peg. Moreover it
will not be re-evaluated their currencies from one side they are still planning
a single currency for the countries of the region. Since the total reserves
minus gold for this region amounted to 107.24 billion US dollars by the end of
2008 compared to the end of 2007, where he was 100.76 billion US dollars. And
these reserves decreased slightly to reach US $ 101.5 billion in 2009, and is
expected to reach 100.2 billion US dollars in 2010 to 101.3 billion US dollars
in 2011.
External
account
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has
witnessed high levels of trade surplus and current account surpluses (balance
of payments) strongly supported the global oil market, and after two periods
time periods of fluctuating oil revenues, occurred in the region an economic
boom more than the expected oil export earnings until late 2008, where the
current account of the balance of payments rose in this region, the highest
surplus valued at US $ 260 billion (the proportion of 24.1% of GDP) in 2008
compared to 2007, where he was 190.3 billion US dollars (the proportion of
22.8% of GDP) annual rate of increase as recorded amounted to 36.6% on the back
of high oil exports and non-oil revenues. The current account surplus dropped
to US $ 57 billion (the proportion of 6.6% of GDP) in 2009 due to the global
financial and economic crisis and the decline in the global oil market. It is
expected that the surplus to rise by 133% to reach 132.9 billion US dollars
(representing 13% of GDP) in 2010 to US $ 175.5 billion (representing 15.7% of
the GDP) in 2011.